How Man City, Liverpool rebuilt and remained top of the Prem

 

Jurgen Klopp, leading Liverpool, and Pep Guardiola, at the helm of Manchester City, are set to collide in a high-stakes encounter at the summit of the Premier League this upcoming weekend.

The iconic clash between Manchester City and Liverpool resumes! This fixture, synonymous with Premier League dominance over the past decade, emerges as a crucial showdown in the title race. Jurgen Klopp's revitalized Liverpool, aiming to bounce back from last season's failure to secure a top-four finish, is once again a contender.

Pep Guardiola's City, coming off a triumphant Champions League/Premier League/FA Cup treble last season, will host Liverpool at the Etihad on Saturday, holding a one-point lead over second-placed Liverpool in the table.

Between the seasons of 2018-19 and 2021-22, City and Liverpool consistently claimed the top two spots in the Premier League, setting remarkable points records as they propelled each other to unprecedented success. While Guardiola and Klopp continue to lead their teams, significant changes have shaped the current iterations of both sides, deviating from the intense rivalry of recent seasons.

To understand the transformation and resurgence of the City-Liverpool rivalry, Mark Ogden and Ryan O'Hanlon analyze the changes at the Etihad and Anfield, evaluating how the two teams have evolved to once again dominate the top positions in the league.

The reasons behind the success of Manchester City and Liverpool:

In their initial title race, Manchester City and Liverpool exhibited notable similarities in their key player positions during the 2018-19 season.

For City, the primary players were:

- Goalkeeper: Éderson

- Left-back: Aymeric Laporte

- Center-backs: John Stones and Nicolás Otamendi

- Right-back: Kyle Walker

- Defensive midfield: Fernandinho

- Central midfield: David Silva and Bernardo Silva

- Left wing: Leroy Sané

- Right wing: Raheem Sterling

- Center-forward: Sergio Agüero

Meanwhile, Liverpool's key players comprised:

- Goalkeeper: Alisson

- Left-back: Andy Robertson

- Center-backs: Virgil van Dijk and Joël Matip

- Right-back: Trent Alexander-Arnold

- Defensive midfield: Fabinho

- Central midfield: Georginio Wijnaldum and Jordan Henderson

- Left wing: Sadio Mané

- Right wing: Mohamed Salah

- Center-forward: Roberto Firmino

Although both teams employed similar formations, there were nuances in their execution. Guardiola's full-backs at City adopted a less aggressive stance for defensive balance compared to Liverpool's, and Liverpool's midfield prioritized defensive aspects over an attack-oriented approach.

In Liverpool's strategy, wingers Salah and Mane served as goal-scoring players positioned on the side opposite their stronger foot. The full-backs provided width, and the center-forward, Firmino, often dropped deeper to create space for the wingers. On the other hand, City's Sane and Sterling maintained wide positions, with Aguero centrally placed. The midfielders advanced to fill spaces on either side of the striker.

City excelled in a signature attacking move of the Guardiola era, the pullback, leading the league with 1.6 pullbacks per match. This involved reaching the end line and then playing the ball backward into the middle of the box, a tactic that set City apart in creativity, with only one other team in the league producing half as many pullbacks.

City topped the league in their frequency of attempting to switch play, executing this maneuver approximately six times per 90 minutes. The tactic involved luring the opposition to one side of the field, swiftly transferring the ball to the opposite side, and ultimately, the winger would advance to the end line, setting the stage for a pullback.

The traditional patterns of Guardiola's play, marked by a desire for total control, included a league-best field tilt (the proportion of all final-third passes in their matches) of 74%. City also led in pressing metrics, such as passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA) and opposition pass-completion percentage.

Fast forward five years, and only four City players from that era remain:

- Goalkeeper: Éderson

- Left-back: Josko Gvardiol

- Center-backs: Rúben Dias and John Stones

- Right-back: Kyle Walker

- Defensive midfield: Rodri

- Central midfield: Bernardo Silva and Julián Álvarez

- Left wing: Jérémy Doku

- Right wing: Phil Foden

- Center-forward: Erling Haaland

With these personnel changes, most of the distinctive stylistic markers have vanished. City's pullback rate has decreased to 0.9 per 90 minutes, ranking 10th in the Premier League. They execute 2.7 switches per 90, placing 12th in the league. Pressing rates have also dropped, with City now at 11th in both PPDA and opponent pass-completion percentage.

Despite these shifts, City continues to lead the league in field tilt. This is achieved by controlling the pace once the ball enters the opponent's defensive third, rather than preventing them from entering City's defensive third.

Unlike the past, where City's best defense was avoiding the need to defend, the current approach involves allowing opponents to attack. With Gvardiol and an older Walker functioning as quasi-center-backs, deviating from the traditional full-back role, City now prefers opponents to push forward. Once in possession, rather than switching play and exploiting weaknesses for pullbacks, City methodically moves the ball until Haaland finds space to deliver a powerful strike.

City has disrupted the typical relationship between pressing and ball movement, presenting a unique approach. Similarly, Liverpool has taken a different direction in this regard.

(Direct speed measures how quickly a team moves the ball upfield in meters per second.)

In the 2018-19 season, Liverpool's statistical profile didn't significantly distinguish itself from City's. They ranked second or third in various attacking and defensive metrics, employing a high press, maintaining control in the attacking third, and frequently operating in the opposition penalty area. While they excelled, they didn't match the exceptional standards set by City, often considered one of the greatest English teams. Liverpool's approach was conventional, featuring two attacking full-backs, three potent attackers, and a conservative midfield providing defensive cover.

The standout aspect for Liverpool, contrasting with peers, was their high number of possessions per game. Klopp's team averaged 99 possessions, surpassed only by Everton and two relegated sides, Huddersfield Town and Fulham. In contrast, City ranked last with 86 possessions per game. Despite both teams playing predominantly in the opposition half, City achieved this with fewer turnovers, whereas possession frequently changed hands for Liverpool.

This season, possession is still frequently changing hands for Liverpool, now averaging 91 possessions per game, placing them fourth in the league. This figure is amidst a general slowdown in play across the Premier League. Let's briefly examine their current core group of players:

- Goalkeeper: Alisson

- Left-back: Andy Robertson

- Center-backs: Virgil van Dijk and Joël Matip

- Right-back: Trent Alexander-Arnold

- Defensive midfield: Alexis Mac Allister

- Central midfield: Dominik Szoboszlai and Curtis Jones

- Left wing: Luis Díaz

- Right wing: Mohamed Salah

- Center-forward: Darwin Núñez

The defensive lineup remains unchanged. Further up the field, Salah and Diaz maintain their positions, with Diaz's playing style sharing similarities with Mane.

The notable alterations include Nunez, a physical, traditional center-forward less involved in buildup play, replacing Firmino. Additionally, all three midfielders now specialize in creativity. The outcome: despite facing four red cards in 12 matches, Liverpool is generating more pullbacks per game (1.7) than City did five years ago, and over double what Klopp's side produced in 2018-19 (0.6).

While the player names may be the same, the role of at least one full-back has evolved. Compared to 2018-19, Alexander-Arnold is delivering two fewer crosses and three fewer passes in the attacking third. However, he's executing five more total passes and five more passes into the attacking third. In the past, TAA maintained a wide position, creating numerous chances, whereas this season, he tends to drift infield, occasionally taking on a midfield role:

Although the current iterations of the two teams differ significantly, Liverpool, with their pullbacks, dynamic midfielders, and more cautious full-backs, serve as a reminiscent display of how their rivals once played.

How Liverpool Mastered Their Unconventional Reconstruction:

Liverpool has challenged conventional football wisdom and the customary rules of team reconstruction, placing themselves back in contention for the season by orchestrating a complete midfield overhaul within a single transfer window. The additions of MacAllister, Szoboszlai, Wataru Endo, and Ryan Gravenberch were complemented by the departures of Fabinho, Henderson, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, and James Milner.

This unconventional transformation deviated from the original plan. Rewinding to the summer of 2022, Klopp's significant squad addition was the £85m club-record signing of Nunez from Benfica. Despite Mane's departure for Bayern Munich, the acquisitions of Diaz from Porto in January 2022 and Nunez six months later seemed to secure Liverpool's attacking plans for the foreseeable future.

Initially, the evolution followed a phased approach: Mane left, Firmino was set to depart at the end of his contract in 2023, and Cody Gakpo's signing was imminent. Gakpo would join Diaz and Nunez alongside Salah in the forward line. However, while the attacking lineup underwent changes over four transfer windows, the midfield remained overlooked.

It's no secret that Klopp had sought a new midfielder throughout the summer of 2022. Jude Bellingham from Borussia Dortmund emerged as the top target, with Liverpool making substantial efforts to secure the teenage talent. However, Dortmund, having lost Haaland to City that summer, made it clear that Bellingham would not be available until the following year.

A late loan acquisition of Juventus midfielder Arthur Melo provided a numerical boost to Klopp's midfield, but the Brazilian's limited participation—clocking just 13 minutes of first-team football due to injury issues—failed to alleviate Klopp's concerns about the midfield situation.

The focus of the 2023 summer transfer window for Liverpool revolved around two primary targets: Bellingham and Chelsea's Mason Mount. However, Liverpool missed out on both as Bellingham opted for Real Madrid, while Mount surprisingly chose Manchester United. The departure of sporting director Julian Ward, who resigned after less than a year, further complicated matters, leaving Klopp with a more hands-on role in identifying potential recruits.

In the absence of Bellingham and Mount, Liverpool swiftly secured the services of Mac Allister from Brighton. However, the unexpected moves of Fabinho and Henderson to Saudi Arabia compelled Klopp to expedite the planned midfield overhaul.

The pivotal addition of sporting director Jorg Schmadtke in the summer played a crucial role. Schmadtke's familiarity with German football, stemming from his recent departure from a similar role at Wolfsburg, enabled him to identify Szoboszlai (RB Leipzig), Endo (VfB Stuttgart), and Gravenberch (Bayern Munich) as the ideal candidates to fill the void left by Fabinho and Henderson.

This remarkable overhaul—four senior midfielders departing and four new ones arriving—all took place in a single transfer window. Yet, Klopp has executed this transformation brilliantly.

Especially noteworthy are the seamless transitions of Mac Allister and Szoboszlai, providing the team with experience and top-quality performances in the heart of the pitch. They have injected energy into the team, with Szoboszlai contributing goals and attacking flair. Klopp heads into the City game with a midfield that can compete with Guardiola's team across all areas, as highlighted by Ogden.

How Manchester City Altered Their Playing Style for Haaland:

Aguero, a striker, managed only six goals during City's 2020-21 Premier League title-winning campaign. In an unexpected twist, midfielder Ilkay Gündogan emerged as the top scorer with 13 goals. Given this, City's pursuit of Tottenham striker Harry Kane in the summer of 2021 was unsurprising. Despite winning the 2021-22 title, the absence of a proven goal-scorer persisted, with midfielder Kevin De Bruyne claiming the top league scorer title with 15 goals.

While Kane's potential signing could have reshaped City's dynamics, the deal didn't materialize. However, the arrival of Erling Haaland from Dortmund marked a transformative moment for Guardiola's team. Recognizing the need for a clinical goal-scorer in their quest for Champions League success, Guardiola sought a replacement for Aguero, initially targeting Kane before ultimately securing Haaland.

Haaland's presence added a direct and lethal dimension to City's play, justifying Guardiola's strategic shift. The striker's remarkable tally of 52 goals across all competitions last season, including a Premier League record of 36 league goals, underscored the impact he had on the team, elevating City to new heights.

While Haaland's impact has undeniably been pivotal with his decisive goals, the acquisition of Julian Alvarez from River Plate in the same summer has proven equally crucial. Alvarez contributed significantly with 17 goals and 5 assists in 49 games across all competitions.

Alvarez complements Haaland well, utilizing intelligent movement across the forward line, providing De Bruyne with an outlet for his exceptional passing range. Guardiola has granted greater freedom to attacking midfielder Bernardo Silva, allowing him to roam as a creative force, supported by Rodri's defensive prowess in a deep-lying midfield role.

Despite summer departures, including Gundogan and Mahrez, and exits a year earlier of Sterling and Jesus, City's well-coordinated system under Guardiola remains unaffected. Haaland remains the focal point of City's buildup work, using his pace and movement to stretch opposing teams and create space for players like Alvarez around him.

While Haaland's absence due to injury this season has been felt in terms of De Bruyne's creativity, the combined efforts of Alvarez, Bernardo, Rodri, and summer signing Doku have filled the void. The lingering question is whether City can thrive without Haaland, as it has done without other key players. This weekend may provide an answer if Haaland's ankle injury, sustained on international duty, keeps him out. Nonetheless, one certainty is that Haaland has been a game-changer for Guardiola's team since joining the club, as highlighted by Ogden.

The reason for the continued parity between Manchester City and Liverpool:

This graph illustrates the performance of each Premier League club since 2018-19 based on their expected goals (xG) differential. The xG differential is adjusted to exclude penalties and factors in minutes played with uneven strength, whether up or down a man. Additionally, the graph includes each team's average points per game. Teams positioned higher on the chart earned more points, while those further to the right exhibited superior underlying performances.

A straightforward observation is that seven teams have exceeded the plus-one xG mark since 2018, including every Manchester City team before the current year. Additionally, two Liverpool sides (2018-19 and 2021-22) achieved this feat, although they did not secure the league title but reached the Champions League final.

However, what adds intrigue to the analysis is the eighth- and ninth-place positions on the list, occupied by the current City team (plus-0.96) and the present Liverpool squad (plus-0.88).

Here's a breakdown of the teams from the current season, arranged by the same adjusted xG differential:

Both Manchester City and Liverpool exhibit imperfections in their statistical profiles, and Arsenal is also vying to join the same statistical category. Despite City having the best xG difference in the league, it is notably lower than in any full season since Guardiola's initial year with the club. Their playing style can face disruptions, leading to matches where shot opportunities are scarce, a rarity in their past performances.

Liverpool, on the other hand, ranks ninth in touches in the box at even strength, allowing more touches in their box than City or Arsenal. The question arises whether they can maintain an elite balance of chances while not exerting elite control in a crucial area of the field.

City has managed these challenges without arguably their best player, De Bruyne, whose anticipated return in early 2024 could provide a clear path to internal improvement. The reintegration of players like Stones and Jack Grealish into consistent roles in league play also offers potential enhancements.

Liverpool's immediate upgrades could involve acquiring a world-class defensive midfielder or center-back, both challenging and expensive midseason endeavors. The need for right-back cover for Alexander-Arnold is evident. However, most of these moves might materialize in the summer unless the team is in the midst of a title race where a new player's contribution could significantly impact the outcome.

The Sporting Index betting market projects City to finish the year with 88 points, Liverpool with 78, and Arsenal with 79. The gap widens considerably to Tottenham at 66 points in fourth. The most likely outcome appears to be another City title, given their depth and resources, which are formidable over a 38-game season. Notably, Liverpool has previously overcome such odds once, achieving it in a season where they created fewer chances and conceded more xG than in the current campaign.

As for Liverpool, they find themselves back in familiar territory. The upcoming match on Saturday will reveal if they can reclaim their position in the race with Manchester City, going toe-to-toe from start to finish. — O'Hanlon